- Alerta Centro de Huracanes de Estados Unidos que tiene estructura similar a un monzón
El Centro Nacional de Huracanes de los Estados Unidos alertó que la Depresión Tropical 5-E tiene una estructura similar a un ciclón monzón como los que se registran en Asia o el Pacífico Norte y que podría impactar tierra cerca o al oeste de Acapulco, Guerrero.
De acuerdo al último reporte emitido por el Centro de Huracanes (NHC por sus siglas en inglés), el ciclón cuenta con dos núcleos distintos: uno con vientos de 20 a 25 nudos al norte del centro y otra área de la misma intensidad al sur y suroeste.
Explicó que esta condición le da al fenómeno vientos fuertes desorganizados e incluso una convección desorganizada que hace difícil definir el centro ya que el movimiento es incierto, así como su trayectoria.
Las proyecciones del NHC indican que el sistema meteorológico podría tocar tierra en las costas mexicanas cerca o al oeste de Acapulco, esto es en la Costa Grande de Guerrero, aunque otras predicciones indican que podría continuar su desplazamiento cerca de las costas mexicanas. Como sea, el NHC predijo que será hasta dentro de 24 horas que podría definirse el ciclón.
Un boletín del NHC enviado alrededor de las 20 horas indicaba que se mantenía una alerta de tormenta tropical desde Acapulco hasta Zihuatanejo y sugirió que desde Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca hasta Manzanillo, Colima deberían monitorear el progreso de la Depresión.
Indicó que alrededor de las 20 horas la Depresión tropical se encontraba a 265 kilómetros al sur de Acapulco y a 395 kilómetros al sur-sureste de Zihuatanejo. Informó que se desplazaba a 11 kilómetros por hora hacia el noroeste, sin embargo alertó que podrían darse movimientos erráticos en el transcurso de la noche.
Alertó que con vientos de 45 kilómetros por hora y rachas aún más altas, podría convertirse en Tormenta tropical este domingo.
Cabe destacar que el último aviso que envió Protección Civil Estatal y Municipal fue alrededor de las dos de la tarde, sin que se tenga conocimiento de nuevas alertas con respecto al Estado del Tiempo en las costas de Guerrero.
ANEXO LA INFORMACIÓN DEL NHC.
The center is hard to pinpoint...and the initial motion is a rather Uncertain 315/6. The depression is on the southwest side of a weak Low/mid-level ridge and strong upper-level ridge...which the
Large-scale models forecast to persist through the forecast period.
The track guidance shows a significant spread...with the gfs...
Ukmet...hwrf...and nogaps forecasting the system to make landfall
On the mexican coast near or west of acapulco...while the gfdl...
Ecmwf...and canadian models forecast a west-northwestward motion
Near the coast. The forecast track calls for a slow northwestward
Motion for the first 24-48 hr...followed by a west-northwestward
Motion. The new forecast track is similar to the old track after
Some adjustment for the initial position...and lies between the
Gfdl and the ecmwf. It should be noted just about any motion to
The right of the track would bring the center onto the mexican
Coast. There is also a chance of some erratic motion during the
First 24 hr as the system consolidates.
Upper-level easterly flow on the south side of the ridge is
Producing 20-25 kt of vertical wind shear over the center...and the
Large-scale models forecast this condition to persist for at least
72 hr. This combined with the sprawling nature of the system
Suggests that intensification should be slow...if it occurs at all.
The only guidance calling for significant strengthening is the
Ships model...which calls for a peak intensity of 53 kt in 60 hr.
Given the similarity of the system to a monsoon cyclone...which can
Intensify in this type of environment...the intensity forecast
Calls for modest strengthening as a compromise between the ships
And lgem models. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone will
Dissipate if it makes landfall over the mountains of southwestern
Mexico.
...tropical depression spreading rainbands across the coast of
Mexico...little change in strength...
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the southwestern
Coast of mexico from acapulco to zihuatanejo. A tropical storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
The warning area within the next 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern coast of mexico from
Puerto angel to manzanillo should monitor the progress of this
Depression.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
Inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
By your local weather office.
At 800 pm pdt...0300z...the broad center of tropical depression
Five-e was located near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 100.0 west
Or about 165 miles...265 km...south of acapulco mexico and about
245 miles...395 km...south-southeast of zihuatanejo mexico.
The depression is generally moving toward the northwest near 7
Mph...11 km/hr. A slow motion toward the northwest is forecast
During the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center
Of the depression is expected to move near the coast of mexico in
The warning area. Some erratic motion could occur tonight and
Sunday as the depression organizes.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph...45 km/hr...with higher
Gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And the depression could become a tropical storm on sunday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
The depression is expected to produce total rainfalls accumulations
Of 4 to 6 inches along the coast of southwestern mexico with
Isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches. These rains could
Cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides...especially over
Mountainous terrain.
--
Juan José Belmonte Torres
Cel: 044-7445070640
MSN:
jjbelmonte@hotmail.comICQ: 47539987
Yahoo:
jjbelmontejr@yahoo.comGmail:
jjbelmonte@gmail.comTwitter: jjbelmonte
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